Firstly I should explain that "Kris Mon" is not an aged Reggae Star from Jamaica, but rather is the Indonesian Idyom for "krisis Monetary" (or I guess 'recession' in English). I was here through Kris Mon I. That was the Asian economic crisis that crippled Southeast Asia from 1997 through until around 2001. It was bad. Many people lost their lives here in Indonesia, and there was a change in government with President Soeharto standing down after 32 years at the helm of this huge country.

This time around things could be potentially worse. In 1997 the crisis gripped South Korea, Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines. Those 4 countries took ov average 5 years to recover back to 1997 levels. The rest of Asia bounced back quicker, thanks mainly to the strength of the economies in Europe and USA. We all know how things are in USA, but until very recently signs of crisis have not been evident in Indonesia.

Signs things were changing emerged in October, when the rupiah dropped against the US$ some 30% almost overnight. A few months earlier foreign goods started to have problems entering Indonesia. Ostensibly this was due to changes in import regulations, in reality it mirrored what happened in 1997 with protection of local manufacturers taking precedent over imports.

In recent days a few more visable signs have emerged to the eyes of the veteran observer. I went for dinner at the Novotel Bogor, not far from our home. We have been eating here for years and normally Saturday night is BBQ buffet night with a rich selection of beef, Prawns, Shrimp, Red Snapper, Squid and a selection of other goodies. Anyway dinner this time consisted of a selection of choices that numbered on 1 hand. No BBQ. It sounds a small thing, but having lived through 1 economic crisis, I can see the signs of another on the horizon. Novotel is part of one of the worlds largest Hotel Groups, Accor Group. They are based in France and having read a bit about their outlook on the web after the meagre dinner, I guess this is a result of severe belt tightening.

Other signs more directly affect our business here. Big corportates such as Citigroup and BHP Billiton have decimated their expatriate numbers almost overnight. There is yet again an exodus of expatriates out of the country.

Of course to date the average Indonesian has not noticed a crisis is developing like a Tsunami offshore. Malls are breakneck busy with shoppers, consumer spending is roaring along unchecked. Like what happened in 97 when the crisis hits here I am afraid things could get ugly. It will for sure slow down retail here.